Beginner's luck at the casino: does it exist?

Beginner's luck

Does beginner luck exist in the casino? Are you more likely to win if you are playing for the first time? Mr. Casino has the definitive answer.

Fun question in the mailbox of Mister Casino ( you can go to it from the link This time it's a question about beginner's luck:

'Dear Mister Casino, Every now and then I go to Holland Casino with some friends. We notice that friends who go for the first time often win money. Why is that?

Does beginner's luck really exist? Or does Holland Casino make sure they win so they come back faster?'

Do beginners get better odds?

If you read the news regularly, you would almost think so:

'Belgian goes to Holland Casino for the first time and wins almost 1.4 million in Breda'

'Woman (22) visits casino for the first time and wins €75,000, with the bet of 1 euro'

Mr. Casino often hears stories about beginners who are very lucky. But: the odds of winning or losing at the casino are the same for everyone. Whether you're a first-time gambler or a hundredth-time gambler.

You can't influence slot machines (not even with your cell phone) and you can't predict the outcome of roulette.

After all, if a red number has fallen nine times, there is no greater chance that a black number will fall the next time. A roulette ball has no memory. This is the so-called gambler's fallacy.

Casino employees can't give a first-time visitor better odds of winning, either.

In blackjack at Holland Casino, the cards are automatically shuffled by the machine. The dealer does not know in advance which card he or she will draw, so he or she does not know whether it will be a good or a bad card. The same goes for punto banco.

As a beginner at the poker table, you may be lucky for a while, but after that you will certainly be played broke by experienced players. The dealer can't change that.

The slot machines don't care whether you've never been to a casino before or if you've been there many times. Whether you play at Holland Casino or at one of the legal online casinos in the Netherlands, such as Kansino or Circus Casino.

Is there such a thing as beginner's luck?

Do people who enter the casino for the first time win because they are beginner's luck? No.

If they win, it is because they are just lucky. In fact, beginner's luck does not exist as such, scientists agree 100%.

It absolutely happens that, for example, a beginner tennis player wins over an experienced tennis player, but that is due to a different coincidence. For example:

  • The practiced tennis player is tired (or sick).
  • The novice tennis player has a lot of tennis talent.
  • The practiced tennis player underestimated the novice tennis player.
  • It was raining hard or it was very cold (or very hot).
  • A combination of the above coincidence factors.

So what about beginner's luck in the casino?

How is it then, that it seems that people who enter the casino for the first time often win? Some possible explanations:

  • A beginner often stops playing immediately when he or she has won something. Many do stand on gains for a while during a visit to the casino, but most continue to play after that.
  • A beginner usually takes little risk and plays only red/black at roulette, for example.
  • Because we think beginner luck exists, we remember stories about winning beginners better. This phenomenon is called confirmation bias.
  • Casino enthusiasts often believe in beginner's luck because they themselves won often as beginners. Suppose 100 people go to the casino for the first time. Half of them win, the other half lose. The 50 people who lose will lose interest in the casino above average. The 50 people who win, on the other hand, will be more likely to go to the casino again and eventually become casino enthusiasts. So the casino fans have experienced above average "beginner's luck" themselves.
  • Exciting stories of people who went to the casino for the first time and won a large amount of money make the newspapers. You read nothing about losing beginners.

Best casinos

Even though it seems to exist: beginner's luck, unfortunately, does not exist. But luckily this also means that your chances don't get worse when you go to the casino for the second, third or hundredth time.

In online casinos you could possibly say that beginners win more often, but that's because of the welcome bonuses and not because they're luckier.