Zigzag betting strategy
The famous trader Tony Salinas invented a strategy for betting on the NBA playoffs, which is called "Zigzag".
The essence of the strategy - bookmakers pari match underestimate the value of the result of the last match of the 7-match series, and the factor of the home court, on the contrary, overestimate. Tony noted that the team that lost in the previous match is under pressure and afraid to lose the next match. This team will be more motivated to play, and their chances of winning are more than 50%. In addition, the odds on the losing team are inflated by bookmakers.
This game system was originally invented for betting on NBA playoff games, but it can be used in any playoff series, as long as the series is played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format. That is, first one team plays two home games, then the second team plays two home games, and then the games alternate one by one until one of the teams wins four games.
Before 2013, the NBA playoffs were played in a 2-3-1-1 format, but it was considered unfair because the team ranked lower in the regular season played three games in a row at home and therefore had a certain advantage, plus Game 5 of the series is largely decisive in a four-game series. Thus, starting in 2013, the NBA changed its playoff series format to our usual 2-2-1-1-1.
The home court factor plays an important role in basketball. In the NBA, teams win 64.5% of their games in the home court. If the home team wins the first game of the series, the bookies greatly overestimate their strength before the second home game. According to statistics, the home team wins the second game with a high probability of 66%. However, despite this, it is convenient to look for valuation bets on visiting teams in the NBA. Cappers are used to placing large amounts of money on the home team, which causes the odds on them to go down, and on the guests - to go up. The guests win 34% of the second match of the series, but the odds on them will be inflated. The real odds, for example, should be 2.70, but after balancing the line it can grow to 3.25.
According to statistics, if a home team loses the first game of a series in the NBA playoffs, then it will win the second game with a 76% probability. Often in the opening games, there are stray wins - some teams are still psychologically unaware that the regular season is over and the playoffs have begun.
The team that loses the first game, no matter where it played, home or away, will win the second game 56% of the time.
If a favorite wins its first two home games and the series goes to an underdog, it (the underdog) flourishes in its home walls - the probability that the series from 0:2 will turn into 1:2 is 65%.
Conclusion
The "Zigzag" strategy is a powerful tool in the hands of a successful trader, but it should not be used as an independent strategy. Together with "Zigzag" it is recommended to use a strategy that will regulate the size of bets - it can be a Kelly criterion, a flat, a percentage of the bank or some other financial model.
