Weak demand hits India’s Q1 smartphone market

Despite challenges, Vivo led with 7.0 million units and 22% market share, followed by Samsung (5.1 million) and Xiaomi (4.0 million), while OPPO and Realme rounded out the top five, with the market poised for recovery

 

 

India’s smartphone market began 2025 on a cautious note, as shipments fell 8% year-on-year in Q1, totalling 32.4 million units, according to Canalys (now part of Omdia). The decline stemmed from sluggish consumer demand and an inventory overhang carried forward from late 2024, which disrupted the pace of new product launches and forced brands to reevaluate their channel strategies.

Despite the challenges, Vivo extended its lead at the top, shipping 7.0 million units and claiming a 22% market share. Samsung followed with 5.1 million units, while Xiaomi ranked third with 4.0 million shipments and a 12% market share. OPPO (excluding OnePlus) and Realme rounded out the top five, with 3.9 million and 3.5 million units shipped, respectively. The market now awaits a potential rebound in the coming quarters, driven by refreshed product lines and renewed demand cycles.

“With consumer demand still fragile, 2025 is shaping up to be another channel-driven year,” said Sanyam Chaurasia, Senior Analyst at Canalys (now part of Omdia). “In the absence of strong organic pull, vendors are relying heavily on retail and distribution networks to stimulate purchases. Channel schemes, offline activations and tighter sell-out coordination will again define share gains.”

Brand strategies shape Q1 trends

“In Q1 2025, Vivo extended its lead with a balanced portfolio and sharp channel execution,” added Chaurasia. “Its V50 series capitalized on the ZEISS partnership, wedding-season campaigns and influencer-led events to boost visibility, while the T- and Y-series ensured strong online-offline synergy. OPPO (excluding OnePlus) leveraged its retail strengths, emphasizing rugged design, water resistance and long battery life, helping it post steady growth. Meanwhile, Realme regained momentum following an inventory correction, with nearly 20% of shipments driven by the new 14X 5G and offline channels now contributing 58% of its volume. Xiaomi’s early Note 14 series launch saw a lukewarm response due to elevated inventory and cautious channel sentiment, though the Redmi 14C 5G helped maintain momentum in the affordable segment.”

“As broader demand softens, brands like Apple and Samsung are anchoring their strategies around upgrade intent and higher ASP plays,” said Chaurasia. “Apple achieved its best-ever Q1 in India, driven by strong iPhone 16 series momentum and compelling offers across ecommerce and large format retailers (LFRs) during Republic Day promotions. The introduction of the iPhone 16e allowed Apple to deepen its reach into Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities. Despite starting the quarter with elevated inventory and a 23% year-on-year drop in total shipments, Samsung witnessed 5% annual growth in its S25 series versus S24 in Q1 2024, driven by premium momentum and conversational AI features. For both brands, ecosystem stickiness and premium-led channel execution will be key strategic levers in the coming quarters.”

Premium shift amid volatility

“The evolving US tariff landscape strengthens India's position in the global smartphone value chain, but demand volatility will test the market in the coming quarters,” stated Chaurasia. “The tariff changes open the door for increased local manufacturing, with smartphone exports expected to benefit. However, demand-side risks persist, particularly in export-reliant sectors facing softer global demand due to higher US prices. Smartphone demand was already tapering, with the pandemic-led replacement cycle winding down by mid-2025. Consumer sentiment remains fragile, especially in rural areas, where spending hinges on monsoon-linked income. In urban centers, upgrade cycles are slowing, and only ecosystem plays and AI-led innovation will stimulate demand. With limited organic growth drivers and reliance on channel dynamics, the market is expected to grow modestly in 2025. Still, rising ASPs and financing-backed premiumization present a silver lining, with the sweet spot shifting toward the ₹20,000 to ₹30,000 (approximately US$250 to US$350) price band.”