ICMR estimated, a Coronavirus patient may infect 406 persons in no lockdown

As per Indian Council of Medical Research, it has been estimated that a single COVID-19 positive person can infect up to 406 others in 30 days if there was no lockdown, said health ministry officials as the number of confirmed coronavirus cases climbed to 4,789.

The ICMR study comes at a time when various state governments have requested the Centre to extend the 21-day lockdown beyond April 14. The study talks about a scenario where 75% of the lockdown is lifted. In such a situation, the same person would infect 2.5 persons.

“It is important to adopt lockdown measures, as it has been said that social distancing is the social vaccine. We request everyone to help us help you,” said Lav Agarwal, Joint Secretary, Health Ministry.

Earlier, the ICMR estimated the R-naught, or R0, a unit which measures how many people can one patient infect, between 1.5 and 4. For its latest study, ICMR assumed the RO to be 2.5. One of the highest ROs was seen in measles — 10.

Raman R Gangakhedkar, Head of ICMR’s epidemiology and communicable diseases division said that 107,006 tests for Covid-19 have been conducted till date. Almost 136 government labs are engaged in this exercise and another 59 private labs have been permitted to carry out these tests.

The health ministry has come up with strategy to manage the Covid-19 patients based on the level of illness. For those with mild infection, a COVID care centre will be provided using lodges, hostels, stadium, upgrading existing quarantine facilities.

For a moderate-level infection, a dedicated COVID health centre with assured oxygen support will be put in place with separate exit and entry to stop the spread of infection. The severely infected patients will be put in COVID health hospitals with intensive care units, ventilators and oxygen support.

“Guidance has been given to states to manage cases at the field level... States and Union territories have been told to give attention to adequate oxygen availability,” Agarwal said.

He also said that the government’s containment strategy has shown great results in cities such as Agra, Gautam Budh Nagar, Bhilwara and Pathanamthitta.