If I were the Prime Minister…

Please note the caption. It is an unlikely condition. Those who care for the grammar, particularly Wren & Martin buffs would understand the nuances of using the word “were”, instead of using “am”, which in popular parlance is the right word. I am not getting into the etymology since that is not the purpose of the theme. Let us look into the subject and that is on the people’s verdict given in the just-concluded Parliamentary elections.

The election results would have put the so-called psephologists into shame since I cannot recall any of the predictions to the dot and not even to the near accuracy. That is for them to bother about it. But there is a national shame involved. Indians, known to have invented the value of zero, the people who mastered arithmetic, Vedic mathematics, and astronomy from time immemorial have been going wide off the mark as far as electoral predictions are concerned. Who is to be blamed? I tried to engage a person who has been very closely connected with electoral predictions and predilections to a conversation so as to know what went wrong for them.

His response was that their methodology should not be doubted since it is the same model and calculations that are used everywhere even in the US, where predictions are believed to be accurate. Then what went wrong? He said that it is on account of the type of response, which can be evinced from people when strangers (surveyor) pose questions. If a surveyor is asking a common man about his candidate and party in preference, no clear-cut answer is going to come through. Suppose an enlightened electorate is coming out with his correct preference, what is the guarantee that he will vote. To cut the long story short, with great shame writ large on his face, he admitted that such surveys, which can make front page news and send happiness and jitters to the party men, will continue to be in the border of libel in India. I did not dwell on the issue further to his great satisfaction.

I am not a keen political watcher. I look at things that pinch my shoes. Otherwise, I am open, whichever party comes into power. My only endorsement is that the Government should have stability and people who govern should have maturity, political and economic acumen and sagacity. I believe that the voters know it better than me. That could be the reason that they have elected a Government, which is stable and has a great stewardship. We have a Prime Minister, who is sober, down to earth, erudite and, to top it all, a world-famous economist and a policy interpreter. That augurs well. But that does not stop me from assuming myself as the Prime Minister and give my thought process to the discerning readers as to what a businessman like me is expecting from the new council of ministers.

Let me start with a warning. The clear verdict that the people have given has a caveat. That is, their expectations from the new Government are also very high. They want them to perform, deliver and script a paradigm shift in the code of governance. They shun demagogue; instead, they need action in the right direction. High-pitched expectations can easily turn into bouts of frustrations. Let us measure the mood of the people and their collective will cannot be swayed by high-pitched promises or statements of intentions. They want employment, income, better quality of life; better education to their children, medical care, better roads, accessible transport infrastructure – and the list goes on and on. Could we say that their expectations are not reasonable? These are most realistic assumptions. They are not looking for comforts and luxuries but bare minimum necessities.

Let me dwell a bit more on this subject. Despite the threatening global meltdown, the performance of the earlier Government is believed to be a shade better than the earlier dispensations. What were the differentiators? Pundits point out, four factors made the difference. The key leaders including the Prime Minister are very competent people. They were employment guarantee scheme, loan waiver and reservations. They were the indicators to inclusive growth. I am not getting into a debate whose ideations were these policy initiatives. Like the popular dictum, every success goes to the victor and every failure goes to the looser. Let us also not forget, this growth model is cast in the popular mould. Every successive Government has been pursuing it in one form or the other, with or without success. But the greater challenge before us is to make the inclusive growth happen. It cannot happen in a vacuum. There has to be an enabling situation for pursuing that growth model. What are the contours of these requirements? Foremost are the resources. We have to find more resources for our employment-generation programme by infusing more funds for creating infrastructure, irrigational facilities, urban infrastructure, etc. That can be mopped up only from services and brick and mortar sectors, which other than generating income and capital assets keep public exchequer ticking by way of tax receivables from individuals and corporations who get benefited from the developments in these sectors.

How the loan waiver of farmers, which entailed more than Rs.60,000 crore, was made possible? The growing tax kitty and the huge foreign exchange reserves gave confidence to the Government to embark on loan write-off schemes. In the same vein, several crores of rupees are needed every year for employment guarantee scheme. The resources will have to come from other sources. Could these sectors grow on their own? Let us not indulge in the classical model of revenue generation and that of chopping the tallest poppies. That is true for every sector, be it software, hardware, manufacturing, etc. Any dislocation to these critical sectors will sap the revenue channels to the Government. The deft handling by the new Government is to strike a synergy with inclusive growth and reform process. The common man has to be still educated that the reform process is not a negation of the inclusive growth. Rather, they support and complement each other like two sides of a coin. Perhaps, that is the most doubted paradigm in the public policy. The man in the street believes that reforms are for the privileged and the inclusive growth for them, which every Government tries to pontificate and seldom act.

I might venture to add that if I were the Prime Minister, I might put my heart and soul to resolve this impasse. Please do not ask me how and why, for I am not the Prime Minister. But one thing I am sure, sooner the Government resolves this conundrum the better for them, since their performance will be judged by the electorate on this basis.