The global PC market is facing renewed pressure as soaring memory prices driven by AI infrastructure demand threaten to derail growth expectations for 2026, according to updated analysis from IDC.
IDC now warns that PC shipments could decline by as much as 9% in a pessimistic scenario, with even its moderate outlook pointing to a 5% contraction—far worse than the earlier forecast of a 2.5% drop.
The downgrade follows a rapidly intensifying global memory shortage. Since mid-October, demand for DRAM and NAND has surged beyond projections, forcing IDC to outline significantly bleaker scenarios.
At the core of the disruption is AI. Hyperscalers and data centers are aggressively absorbing memory capacity, with up to 70% of global memory output in 2026 expected to be consumed by data centers alone.
Memory manufacturers are prioritising high-margin products such as high-bandwidth memory and DDR5 for AI workloads, structurally redirecting supply away from consumer devices.
This shift is not a short-term cycle. IDC describes it as a long-term reallocation of silicon capacity that could persist for years, fundamentally reshaping hardware economics.
The impact on PCs is severe. Rising DRAM and SSD costs are expected to push average selling prices up by 6–8%, even as unit shipments fall sharply year-on-year.
Smartphones are also affected, particularly mid-range models where memory costs form a large part of the bill of materials, potentially driving higher prices or reduced specifications.
Larger OEMs like Dell, HP, and Lenovo are better positioned to absorb the shock due to scale and supply agreements, while smaller vendors and DIY builders face greater risk.
Ironically, the crunch hits just as the industry pushes AI PCs, which require more memory. With muted consumer enthusiasm and higher prices, IDC warns the AI boom may backfire on consumer hardware markets.
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