China’s Airpower Surge Is Reshaping the Indo-Pacific Balance

A new strategic assessment warns that China’s rapid expansion of airpower has fundamentally altered the military balance in the Indo-Pacific, sharply constraining long-standing assumptions of U.S. and allied air superiority. The findings come from The Evolution of Russian and Chinese Air Power Threats, a report by Justin Bronk, which analyses how Russian and Chinese air capabilities have evolved since 2020.

The report concludes that while Russia remains a serious and increasingly capable threat in Europe—shaped by combat experience in Ukraine—China presents a far more structural and systemic challenge. Beijing’s integrated growth in air, missile, sensor, and networked warfare capabilities has already transformed U.S. freedom of action inside and around the First Island Chain, encompassing Taiwan, Japan, and surrounding waters.

Since 2020, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force and the People’s Liberation Army Navy Air Force have expanded advanced fourth- and fifth-generation fighter fleets at remarkable speed. By late 2025, China is assessed to field between 320 and 350 J-20 stealth fighters, with production rates approaching 120 aircraft annually, alongside roughly 450 J-16 multirole fighters. These aircraft are supported by long-range air-to-air missiles that significantly outrange Western equivalents, giving Chinese pilots a decisive engagement advantage.

Crucially, this fighter growth is embedded within a dense, layered system of enablers. China now operates around 50 KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft, advanced electronic warfare platforms, and an expanding satellite-based ISR network. These assets are tightly integrated with ground-based and maritime integrated air defence systems (IADS), creating what the report describes as long-range “kill chains” capable of threatening U.S. aerial refuelling tankers, carrier strike groups, and forward air bases at distances of 1,000 km or more.

As a result, Western aircraft operating within the First Island Chain would do so in highly contested airspace, at the extreme end of tanker support, basing options, and electromagnetic resilience. The report stresses that previous assumptions of uncontested Western air dominance in the Indo-Pacific can no longer be taken for granted.

Bronk recommends that Western planners abandon expectations of guaranteed air superiority and instead plan for limited, temporary windows of control achieved through superior training, fifth-generation platforms, and advanced munitions. Investment priorities must shift toward countering China’s long-range strike and sensor networks and accounting for the sheer scale and pace of Chinese force generation.

The conclusion is stark: Western dependence on air superiority has increased just as achieving it has become far harder. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s airpower growth represents not an incremental challenge, but a fundamental shift in the character of modern air warfare.