CAN WE PROVE ARNOLD TOYNBEE WRONG ON HIS PREDICTION OF CYCLICAL HISTORY?

DR. ASOKE K. LAHA
Chairman-Emeritus and Founder, InterraIT

Without ever realizing it, the world has completed a quarter of the 21st century. What was the most memorable event during the last twenty-five years? We started the century with a bang, realizing that a millennium was unfolding before us with its expectations, hopes, and anxieties. We celebrated the entry with a techie mindset by renaming it as 2K, the first time a year was named in a symbolic term. Many felt that it was a happy augury.

There were predictions about what the new century and millennium would unveil. Technocrats termed the unfolding of a new year, century, and millennium a turning point. It was widely believed that human ingenuity would traverse newer horizons, driven by the digital world of algorithms, unexplored innovations, and disruptions.

Every day, month, year, decade, century, and millennium has had its excitement, particularly at the embryonic stage or a little later. Sooner we realize that events more or less follow a statistical regularity. There will be events of all hues, good, bad, and ugly. Every timeframe is an approximation of linearity with some exceptions here and there. The time gone by has presented us with a mix of everything.

While digital leaps empowered us to communicate better and efficiently, we realized that the world was in the grip of a catastrophe when the pangs of Covid stared at us, snatching precious lives for no fault of ours. Millions lost their lives despite the medical breakthroughs that were boasted. That devastating period did not segregate people based on rich, or poor, advanced or primitive civilizations.

That was not the end of the tunnel. Before and after COVID-19, catastrophes took place at regular intervals, mainly from climate change, and the losses were more or less localized and were in the form of epidemics, floods, and droughts. Poor people living in continents like Africa, Asia, etc, bore the brunt of such developments. Despite these savory and unsavory developments, science continued to grow and flourish. Newer innovations, disruptions, and breakthroughs came at regular intervals.

What will be the next epoch-making breakthrough in the scientific world? Will it be in the digital world? Of course, there will be a string of discoveries and innovations in the digital space, and that will be mostly linear in nature, continuation, or logical extensions of the present technologies and equipment, which may not be as groundbreaking as it was in the case of the discovery of the internet.

Will there be any tectonic shift in medical science, such as ensuring longevity of life or strings of innovations that can address diseases like Parkinson's, Cancer, or a cure for diabetes or similar types of non-communicable diseases? Such medical breakthroughs happen at every point of time in history. Man has conquered many diseases over a period of time by finding a permanent or partial cure for such ailments. For instance, there have been considerable breakthroughs in the treatment of tuberculosis, cardiovascular diseases, and newer medicines and surgical interventions have been developed for such diseases with full or partial cure.

Yet, there are many ailments that are still engaging the attention of scientists and medical practitioners alike. Considerable research is being conducted in these areas to discern the basic reasons, and sooner or later, treatments for such ailments will become a reality with a fair degree of success. That is a continuous process. Mankind will conquer many diseases and ailments and will unravel the reasons for the occurrence of such diseases. It is nothing new; it is an ever- growing engagement and preoccupation. Perhaps, the only thing that may elude human ingenuity in the short and medium term is the prevention of ageing and consequent death. I do not know whether, in the long run, a solution may emerge for that, also.

Then, which is the area that can throw up surprises and excitement? I feel it is going to be in space science. A slew of technologies and spacecraft will emerge in the coming years that can equip man to conquer space. Experiments are taking place in the most celebrated laboratories and research organizations to get more insights into space and unravel the dynamics of space and the mysteries of the universe. There are a good number of space scientists who believe that civilizations can be built in space, and another set of people believe that there are planets which can support life.

I am an ardent fan of the famous author and Historian Arnold J. Toynbee. He is best known for his 12-volume work, "A Study of History," which explores the rise and fall of civilizations and propounds a cyclical theory of history, suggesting that civilizations emerge, grow, and eventually decline in  response  to  challenges and their ability to respond creatively. Importantly, another well- known author, D.C. Somervell abridged the monumental work of Toynbee. While reducing the work to one-sixth of its original size, he has succeeded in preserving its method and character.

Toynbee suggests that civilizations go through a life cycle: genesis, growth, breakdown, disintegration, and potentially a universal state before collapse. This pattern is not predetermined, and civilizations can potentially break the cycle through continued creative responses.

Toynbee's work is not without its critics. Yet, it offers a valuable framework for understanding the complexities of historical change and the factors that contribute to the rise and fall of civilizations. I agree with Toynbee on many points and disagree with him in equal measure in many places. This is not a piece to explain the points we agree and disagree. Yet, I must share that I am not as pessimistic as Toynbee was.

My major point of disagreement with Toynbee is when he claims history is optics, and civilizations, when they reach a certain stage, tend to create forces of their destruction. I feel the great historian has given a cautious path to tread to preempt such situations. People will have to think creatively and positively. What did he mean by that? To my understanding, he wanted mankind to keep the negative forces in check and maintain the balance of the planet. Disruptions to upset balance or block creativity will harm the human race. The result is acrimony, distrust, and war. All such misdeeds can destroy civilizations as it had done over millennia, when disruptive forces were generated from within. I wish our present crop of leaders do a soul search to avoid Toynbee’s apocalyptic predictions and predilections.