According to trade officials and documents, a 20-year global moratorium on imposing tariffs on digital trade could end next week if India or South Africa makes good on threats. This could potentially force people to pay duties on software and movie downloads.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) since 1998 has renewed a ban on import duties on so-called "electronic transmissions", which are worth up to $255bn a year by one estimate. The ban received strong backing from Washington at the outset, and because most of the lost customs revenues are thought to be borne by developing countries.
Pressure is now growing to lift the ban as more books and movies become digital, potentially reducing revenues further.
India and South Africa circulated an internal WTO document citing the potential of 3D printing to manufacture products and that said rising digitalisation compelled "a rethink of the role of the temporary moratorium" last year.
The future of the moratorium will be decided next week, and its renewal requires full consensus.
A proposal backed by 21 countries including China and Canada, seeks to extend the ban for at least six months when it expires at the end of 2019. Such duties could be difficult to apply, and it is not clear how the origin of digital products, or if they are imports - would be determined.
It has been stressed it does not mean that tariffs will immediately follow as the memorandum expires. But this is seen as more likely in a new culture of permissiveness following the expected paralysis of the WTO's top ruling body after December 10, 2019.
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