
These days the limitation of the cyber attack is not limited to only the theft of your social data, hacking your personal information from your computer or spying on you, but it is much beyond that. There are plenty of cyber attack scenarios available. Perhaps attackers start with the banks - one day your bank balance drops to zero and then suddenly leaps up, showing you've got millions in your account. Then stock prices start going crazy as hackers alter data flowing into the stock exchange. The next day the trains aren't running because the signaling stops working, and you can't drive anywhere because the traffic lights are all stuck on red, and the shops in big cities start running out of food. Pretty soon a country could be reduced to gridlock and chaos, even without the doomsday scenarios of hackers disabling power stations or opening dams.
Cyberwarfare refers to the use of these digital attacks - like computer viruses and hacking - by one country to disrupt the vital computer systems of another, with the aim of creating damage, death and destruction. Future wars will see hackers using computer code to attack an enemy's infrastructure, fighting alongside troops using conventional weapons like guns and missiles.
A shadowy world that is still filled with spies, hackers and top secret digital weapons projects, cyberwarfare is an increasingly common -- and dangerous -- feature of international conflicts. But right now the combination of an ongoing cyberwarfare arms race and a lack of clear rules governing online conflict means there is a real risk that incidents could rapidly escalate out of control.
Ransomware and cyberwar
Ransomware, which has been a constant source of trouble for businesses and consumers, may also have been used not just to raise money but also to cause chaos. Perhaps one of the most unexpected twists recently has been the use of weaponised ransomware to destroy data. The US, UK and a number of other governments blamed Russia for the NotPetya ransomware outbreak which caused havoc in mid-2017, with the White House describing the incident as 'the most destructive and costly cyberattack in history.' While the attack was most likely aimed at doing damage to computer systems in Ukraine it rapidly spread further and caused billions of dollars of damage, reflecting how easily cyber weapons can get beyond the control of their makers.
What are cyberwarfare ?
Just like normal warfare which can range from limited skirmishes to full-on battles, the impact of cyberwarfare will vary by target and severity. In many cases the computer systems are not the final target, they are being targeted because of their role in managing real-world infrastructure like airports or power grids. Knock out the computers and you can shut down the airport or the power station as a result.
Nearly every system we use is underpinned in some way by computers, which means pretty much every aspect of our lives could be vulnerable to cyberwarfare at some point, and some experts warn it's a case of when, not if.
Why are governments investing in cyberwarfare right now?
Governments are increasingly aware that modern societies are so reliant on computer systems to run everything from financial services to transport networks that using hackers armed with viruses or other tools to shut down those systems could be just as effective and damaging as traditional military campaign using troops armed with guns and missiles.
Unlike traditional military attacks, a cyberattack can be launched instantaneously from any distance, with little obvious evidence of any build-up, unlike a traditional military operation. Such as attack would be extremely hard to trace back with any certainty to its perpetrators, making retaliation harder.
As a result governments and intelligence agencies worry that digital attacks against vital infrastructure,like banking systems or power grids, will give attackers a way of bypassing a country's traditional defences, and are racing to improve their computer security.
However, they also see the opportunity that cyberwarfare capabilities bring, offering a new way to exert influence on rival states without having to put soldiers at risk. The fear of being vulnerable to the cyberweapons of their rivals plus a desire to harness these tools to bolster their own standing in the world is leading many countries into a cyber arms race.
Cyberwarfare and the use of force
There is one key formal definition of cyberwarfare, which is a digital attack that is so serious it can be seen as the equivalent of a physical attack.
To reach this threshold, an attack on computer systems would have to lead to significant destruction or disruption, even loss of life. This is the significant threshold because under international law, countries are allowed to use force to defend themselves against an armed attack.
It follows then that, if a country were hit by a cyberattack of significant scale, the government is within its rights to strike back using the force of their standard military arsenal: to respond to hacking with missile strikes perhaps.
So far this has never happened -- indeed it's not entirely clear if any attack has ever reached that threshold. Even if such an attack occurred it wouldn't be assumed that the victim would necessarily strike back in such a way, but international law would not stand in the way of such a response.
That doesn't mean attacks that fail to reach that level are irrelevant or should be ignored: it just means that the country under attack can't justify resorting to military force to defend itself. There are plenty of other ways of responding to a cyberattack, from sanctions and expelling diplomats, to responding in kind, although calibrating the right response to an attack is often hard.
One reason that the legal status of cyberwarfare has been blurred is that there is no international law that refers to cyberwar, because it is such a new concept. But this doesn't mean that cyberwarfare isn't covered by law, it's just that the relevant law is piecemeal, scattered, and often open to interpretation.
This lack of legal framework has resulted in a grey area that some states are very willing to exploit, using the opportunity to test out cyberwar techniques in the knowledge that other states are uncertain about how they could react under international law.
More recently that grey area has begun to shrink. A group of law scholars has spent years working to explain how international law can be applied to digital warfare. This work has formed the basis of the Tallinn Manual, a textbook prepared by the group and backed by the NATO-affiliated Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCoE) based in the Estonian capital of Tallinn, from which the manual takes its name.
The first version of the manual looked at the rare but most serious cyberattacks, the ones at the level of the use of force; the second edition released tried to build a legal framework around cyberattacks that do not reach the threshold of the use of force.
Aimed at legal advisers to governments, military, and intelligence agencies, the Tallinn Manual sets out when an attack is a violation of international law in cyberspace, and when and how states can respond to such assaults.
The manual consists of a set of guidelines , 154 rules, which set out how the lawyers think international law can be applied to cyberwarfare, covering everything from the use of cyber mercenaries to the targeting of medical units' computer systems.
The idea is that by making the law around cyberwarfare clearer, there is less risk of an attack escalating, because escalation often occurs when the rules are not clear and leaders overreact.
The second version of the manual, know as Tallinn 2.0, looks at the legal status of the various types of hacking and other digital attacks that occur on a daily basis during peacetime and looks at when a digital attack becomes a a violation of international law in cyberspace.
What is Stuxnet?
Stuxnet is a computer worm that targets industrial control systems, but is most famous for most likely being the first genuine cyber weapon, in that it was designed to inflict physical damage.
It was developed by the US and Israel (although they have never confirmed this) to target the Iranian nuclear programme. The worm, first spotted in 2010, targeted specific Siemens industrial control systems, and seemed to be targeting the systems controlling the centrifuges in the Iranian uranium enrichment project -- apparently damaging 1,000 of these centrifuges and delaying the project, although the overall impact on the programme is not clear.
Stuxnet was a complicated worm, using four different zero-day exploits and likely took millions of dollars of research and months or years of work to create.
Cyberwar and the Internet of Things
Big industrial control systems or military networks are often considered the main targets in cyberwarfare but one consequence of the rise of the Internet of Things may be to bring the battlefield into our homes.
"Our adversaries have capabilities to hold at risk US critical infrastructure as well as the broader ecosystem of connected consumer and industrial devices known as the Internet of Things," said a US intelligence community briefing from January 2017. Connected thermostats, cameras, and cookers could all be used either to spy on citizens of another country, or to cause havoc if they were hacked. Not all IoT devices are in homes; hospitals and factories and smart cities are now filled with sensors and other devices which means that the real-world impact of an IoT outage could be widely felt.
How do you defend against cyberwarfare?
The same cybersecurity practices that will protect against everyday hackers and cyber crooks will provide some protection against state-backed cyberattackers, who use many of the same techniques.
That means covering the basics: changing default passwords and making passwords hard to crack, not using the same password for different systems, making sure that all systems are patched and up-to-date (including the use of antivirus software), ensuring that systems are only connected to the internet if necessary and making sure that essential data is backed up securely. This may be enough to stop some attackers or at least give them enough extra work to do that they switch to an easier target.
Recognizing that your organisation can be a target is an important step: even if your organisation is not an obvious target for hackers motivated by greed , you may be a priority for hackers looking to create chaos.
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