The global economy is projected to reach approximately $115 trillion by 2025, reflecting a steady growth trajectory influenced by various economic, geopolitical, and technological factors.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth to stabilize at 3.1% in 2024, with a slight increase to 3.2% in 2025. This growth is underpinned by declining inflation rates, which have been easing due to the resolution of supply-side issues and restrictive monetary policies.
Similarly, Morgan Stanley anticipates global economic growth of 3.0% in 2025, followed by a marginal deceleration to 2.9% in 2026. This outlook suggests a period of modest expansion, with potential slowdowns attributed to rising uncertainties and policy shifts, particularly in the United States.
These five economies collectively account for a substantial portion of the global GDP, underscoring their pivotal roles in the international economic landscape.
The global economy is projected to reach approximately $115 trillion in nominal GDP by 2025, with the United States maintaining its position as the world's largest economy. According to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook Database (October 2024 edition), the U.S. is expected to achieve a GDP of around $30.3 trillion in 2025.
China will retain its position as the world’s second-largest economy in 2025, with a GDP of $19.5 trillion, marking a 15-year streak. Together, the U.S. and China will account for over 43% of the global GDP, projected at $115 trillion.
Recent shifts in the rankings have seen Germany ($4.9 trillion) surpass Japan ($4.4 trillion) as the third-largest economy in 2024. India, with a GDP of $4.3 trillion, overtook the UK ($3.7 trillion) in 2020 to secure the fifth spot. These positions are expected to remain unchanged until 2026, when India is projected to surpass Japan for fourth place, and then Germany for third by 2028.
Elsewhere in the rankings, Australia is on track to overtake Spain for 13th place in 2025, while Brazil is expected to break into the top eight by 2028. These movements reflect ongoing shifts in economic power across the globe.
While the global economy is on track to reach $115 trillion by 2025, this growth is subject to various influencing factors. Policymakers and investors should remain vigilant, considering both the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead in this dynamic economic landscape.
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