Software
Global PC shipments grew 8.1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, marking a significant rebound for the sector as enterprises and consumers rushed to replace older systems ahead of the Windows 10 end-of-support deadline, according to preliminary estimates from Counterpoint Research.
The report attributes the growth to a combination of OS migration demand and strategic inventory adjustments linked to U.S. import tariff policies. Analysts said the approaching Windows 10 sunset in October 2025 has effectively triggered an “industry-wide refresh cycle,” prompting upgrades across commercial and consumer segments. Nearly 40% of the world’s PC installed base is still running Windows 10, suggesting further upside in the quarters ahead.
Leading manufacturers capitalized on the refresh momentum, with Lenovo, Apple, and Asus posting double-digit growth. Lenovo retained its global leadership, reporting a 17.4% annual increase in shipments, while HP strengthened its No. 2 position with a 10.3% year-on-year rise driven by robust enterprise demand. Apple’s shipments surged 14.9%, powered by strong uptake of new MacBook models, and Asus posted the fastest sequential growth of 22.5% quarter-on-quarter, underscoring rising consumer notebook demand.
Dell Technologies, however, saw a modest 0.9% annual decline, despite a slight quarterly gain, reflecting cautious enterprise procurement in core markets. Together, the top five brands accounted for nearly 75% of global PC shipments, highlighting continued consolidation in the industry.
“While current growth is primarily driven by OS migration, the industry is poised for a much deeper transformation with the rise of the AI PC,” said Minsoo Kang, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint. “That next wave of growth hasn’t yet appeared in the Q3 numbers but it’s coming.”
Analysts expect AI-enabled PCs to emerge as the next major growth engine from 2026 onward, as chipmakers such as Qualcomm, Intel, and NVIDIA roll out new processors designed for on-device AI computing. Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X2 Elite, Intel’s Panther Lake architecture, and forthcoming ARM-based CPU-GPU hybrids from NVIDIA and MediaTek are expected to underpin a new generation of “AI PCs” capable of running generative AI assistants and large language models locally, without relying on cloud infrastructure.
“The PC market’s rebound in 2025 is not just about replacing outdated systems—it’s about preparing for what comes next,” said David Naranjo, Associate Director at Counterpoint. “Enterprises are beginning to adopt AI-capable PCs to future-proof their fleets, even if they don’t need those capabilities immediately.”
While the AI-driven refresh cycle is expected to gain momentum after 2026, the current upgrade wave has provided the financial and hardware foundation for a broader shift toward intelligent computing at the edge. Industry observers expect CES 2026 to mark the next major milestone, showcasing AI-integrated laptops and desktops that define the next era of personal computing.
The report attributes the growth to a combination of OS migration demand and strategic inventory adjustments linked to U.S. import tariff policies. Analysts said the approaching Windows 10 sunset in October 2025 has effectively triggered an “industry-wide refresh cycle,” prompting upgrades across commercial and consumer segments. Nearly 40% of the world’s PC installed base is still running Windows 10, suggesting further upside in the quarters ahead.
Leading manufacturers capitalized on the refresh momentum, with Lenovo, Apple, and Asus posting double-digit growth. Lenovo retained its global leadership, reporting a 17.4% annual increase in shipments, while HP strengthened its No. 2 position with a 10.3% year-on-year rise driven by robust enterprise demand. Apple’s shipments surged 14.9%, powered by strong uptake of new MacBook models, and Asus posted the fastest sequential growth of 22.5% quarter-on-quarter, underscoring rising consumer notebook demand.
Dell Technologies, however, saw a modest 0.9% annual decline, despite a slight quarterly gain, reflecting cautious enterprise procurement in core markets. Together, the top five brands accounted for nearly 75% of global PC shipments, highlighting continued consolidation in the industry.
“While current growth is primarily driven by OS migration, the industry is poised for a much deeper transformation with the rise of the AI PC,” said Minsoo Kang, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint. “That next wave of growth hasn’t yet appeared in the Q3 numbers but it’s coming.”
Analysts expect AI-enabled PCs to emerge as the next major growth engine from 2026 onward, as chipmakers such as Qualcomm, Intel, and NVIDIA roll out new processors designed for on-device AI computing. Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X2 Elite, Intel’s Panther Lake architecture, and forthcoming ARM-based CPU-GPU hybrids from NVIDIA and MediaTek are expected to underpin a new generation of “AI PCs” capable of running generative AI assistants and large language models locally, without relying on cloud infrastructure.
“The PC market’s rebound in 2025 is not just about replacing outdated systems—it’s about preparing for what comes next,” said David Naranjo, Associate Director at Counterpoint. “Enterprises are beginning to adopt AI-capable PCs to future-proof their fleets, even if they don’t need those capabilities immediately.”
While the AI-driven refresh cycle is expected to gain momentum after 2026, the current upgrade wave has provided the financial and hardware foundation for a broader shift toward intelligent computing at the edge. Industry observers expect CES 2026 to mark the next major milestone, showcasing AI-integrated laptops and desktops that define the next era of personal computing.
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