Global cellular IoT connectivity revenue expected to surpass $26 bn by 2030

Notwithstanding challenges in the IoT module sector, the global cellular IoT connections climbed 24% YoY in 2023 to reach 3.3 billion, revealed a new study by Counterpoint Research. The market is set to continue its strong expansion, with connections projected to exceed 6.2 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 10%, it said.

Global cellular IoT connectivity revenues also saw a 17% YoY increase, reaching $13.7 billion, even as ARPUs continued to decline. Counterpoint expects global cellular IoT revenues to surpass $26 billion by 2030, as ARPUs are expected to stabilize in the latter part of the decade.

China, with more than 2.3 billion connections, continues to dominate the global cellular IoT market with a near 70% global share in 2023, up 26% YoY. The number of cellular IoT connections in China has already surpassed the number of mobile phone subscribers, as Mobile Network Operators aggressively expand their IoT deployments. Despite China’s overwhelming share of connections, its contribution to global IoT connectivity is 36%.

Mohit Agrawal, Research Director at Counterpoint, said, “China continues to roll out low-cost IoT plans for rapid deployment. A sizeable portion of connections in China operate on 2G and NB-IoT networks, with ARPUs lower than $2.2 per year. Looking ahead, we expect ARPUs to stabilize, particularly with the advent of 5G and growth of 4G Cat-1 bis solutions as China will continue to expand its connections into the automotive, smart meters and smart retail sectors.”

According to the report, connected cars, smart meters and smart retail will continue to dominate the cellular IoT landscape and collectively account for more than 60% of the cellular IoT market by the end of 2030. Connected cars will enhance vehicle automation and safety, while the smart meters will optimize energy usage and utility management. Smart retail will improve customer experiences with data-driven insights and more security. These sectors will drive the growth of IoT, transforming industries with real-time connectivity and efficiency.

The operators worldwide, as per the study, have been steadily expanding their cellular IoT presence. Talking about the market outlook, Siddhant Cally, Research Analyst at Counterpoint, said, “We are witnessing a significant increase in cellular IoT use cases such as utilities and connected vehicles. Many emerging nations are implementing digital transformation plans that prioritize the deployment of public service solutions. The advent of 5G will play a crucial role in driving connectivity-based revenues, as operators capitalize on the vast potential of massive Machine-type Communications (mMTC) offered by 5G, particularly as 2G and 3G technologies are phased out.”

The 5G is expected to account for nearly 50% of Global Cellular IoT revenues by 2030, as it will cater to high-demand applications like autonomous vehicles, industrial automation, and immersive smart cities.