The rising joblessness in India raises many concerns on the economy revival. It is also true that the government is taking a number of measures to revive growth but its decisions over the next two months will be crucial for India's economy.
The next two months will be crucial for the Indian economy, which is facing the worst growth slowdown in six years, as per official GDP data released on August 30. An expert says, it would be almost impossible to tackle the slowdown without reviving small scale enterprises, which create a bulk of employment opportunities across sectors.
It can be noted that at 6.7 percent, unemployment has risen to a 45 year high in 2018, according to the official data, which the government though has chosen not to make public. In defence, officials say the data do not capture the gig economy and other self-employed jobs.
State Bank of India (SBI) Chairman Rajnish Kumar told several business dailies that the next two months will be critical in terms of reviving the economy. While growth for the April-June quarter slumped to a low of 5 per cent on weak consumer demand, Kumar hopes that demand will pick up once the festive season kicks in.
He, too, like many other economists feels that strong policy reforms are needed to tackle the slowdown, which seems to be a mix of structural and cyclical factors.
Economists feel that the government is working on measures that cater to the supply-side of operations while demand creation has been grossly ignored, which is a concern as supply growth without demand is no good.
The supply-side changes to yield benefits, people need to have cash in their hands. However, the current spree of job losses combined by record-high unemployment rate has severely affected the supply-demand ratio in India--a key reason behind the economic slowdown.
The government has to come up with measures to increase wage growth, which declined significantly due to certain policy reforms aimed at correcting macroeconomic imbalances, showed an SBI study.
This, however, is not possible without injecting more liquidity into the system. Despite the bank mergers and shots of recapitalisation, Indian banks are far from recovery, with non-performing assets (NPA) close to Rs 8 lakh crore.
Another subject matter expert says, while the government has been busy announcing bank mergers and minor policy reforms, economists have made it clear that such measures will not play a decisive role in economic revival.
The decision to merge non-performing banks with anchor banks--those performing much better--could turn out to be a fruitless move, according to many economists who feel that it would only increase complications. A question comes on, is government is ready hear the suggestions, Question remain unanswered.
A report from, Cosmos Institute of Mental Health and Behavioural Sciences (CIMBS), says, there is a threefold increase in degenerating mental health among senior professionals. According to Optum, a top provider of employee-assistance programmes to companies, stress-related complaints from employees have doubled from a year earlier to 16% in 2019.
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