Rare Earths to Redefine Global Defense Power in 2026

Global rare earth production is rapidly becoming the foundation of geopolitical strength and defense superiority, as nations race to secure access to these critical minerals. Often described as the “strategic oil” of the 21st century, rare earth elements are indispensable to modern technologies powering defense, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence — from precision-guided missiles and fighter jets to electric vehicles and quantum processors. As global supply chains tighten, control over rare earths now equates to national security, industrial resilience, and technological sovereignty.

China remains the undisputed leader, producing around 270,000 metric tons in 2024, nearly 70% of global output, and controlling over 90% of global refining capacity. This dominance gives Beijing vast influence over advanced industries and defense manufacturing worldwide. Despite environmental regulations and output quotas, China’s vertically integrated ecosystem — spanning mining, processing, and magnet production — cements its status as the backbone of global supply. Its dominance grants strategic leverage, as rare earth-derived components are vital for stealth aircraft, radar systems, precision munitions, and naval propulsion.

The United States, the second-largest producer with 15,000 metric tons annually and 45,000 metric tons in reserves, is working to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains. Washington is investing heavily in domestic mining and refining projects in California, Texas, and Alaska, while federal agencies promote recycling and alternative refining technologies. Partnerships with Australia, Vietnam, and Canada are central to its “friend-shoring” strategy to secure stable, non-Chinese supply lines.

Meanwhile, Australia, Vietnam, Nigeria, and Thailand are boosting production to strengthen their positions. Australia alone produced 13,000 metric tons in 2024, with major expansions underway.

As global demand is projected to grow over 6% annually through 2030, the ability to build integrated, sustainable supply chains will define future defense and industrial power. By 2026, rare earth control will reshape global hierarchies — making mineral autonomy the new frontier of strategic dominance.