The global economy is projected to show notable resilience in 2026, even as trade fragmentation, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on growth. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is emerging as a critical counterbalance to these pressures, supporting productivity, investment, and overall economic momentum.
The IMF acknowledges parallels with the late-1990s dot-com boom but emphasizes that current conditions are fundamentally different. Its analysis indicates that potential overvaluation in the broad U.S. equity market is only about half the level seen during the dot-com peak.
Unlike that period, today’s AI-driven valuations are underpinned by measurable productivity gains, strong corporate earnings potential, and widespread adoption across sectors such as manufacturing, finance, healthcare, and logistics. This suggests that while risks of exuberance remain, the AI boom is rooted more firmly in real economic value.
At the same time, the IMF warns that AI’s gains will not be evenly shared. Automation and algorithmic decision-making pose risks to certain jobs and could suppress wages in roles vulnerable to technological substitution. Without targeted interventions, these dynamics may widen income inequality and intensify labor market polarization, even as headline growth improves.
To ensure inclusive outcomes, the IMF calls for coordinated policy action. Governments should reduce barriers to AI adoption, expand digital infrastructure, and prioritize large-scale reskilling programs. Enabling workers to acquire future-ready skills will be essential to translating AI-led growth into broad-based and sustainable economic benefits.
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