My vision of a multipolar world: Hallucination or Reality?

Asoke K Laha, President & MD, Interra Information Technologies

When I look back reflecting on this column, I am imbued with a sense of satisfaction, irrespective of what my esteemed readers might think. I could write on a wide range of subjects. I always tried to give a distinct IT context to all my articles, wherever possible. I tried to attempt subjects that are very relevant, contextual, and even trivial. I have written about, IT, economics, commerce, diplomacy, social subjects, literature, epics and what have you. Now I remember one subject other than politics, that escaped my radar, which I vaguely put as geopolitical. Let me deal with that from my own perspective, with the caveat that it is a subject that I know the least. Yet I always believe that heard melodies are sweet, but the unheard ones can be sweeter.  

With that premise, let me kick off my thought process on a subject that I am not even distantly connected.  I was born and brought up in an era, where we believed, the world was bipolar. That was the time China was mostly unknown to the world, facing a lot of challenges and vicissitudes.  The two forces to reckon with were the United States and the Soviet Union, which ruled the roost. There was the competition between the two in all spheres, such as exerting political influence, making breakthroughs in science and technology, arm-twisting other countries with their economic power, meddling with other countries’ political and economic affairs, and the list of their do's and don’ts were long. That bipolar architecture continued for several years, till the chinks appeared in the armory of the Soviet Union.  

To cut a long story short, the bipolar world had shrunk into a unipolar world, within no time. The US had become all powerful with the decimation of the Soviet Union. They dictated the world at a time, China was in the making. It took several years for China to reach at the present stage to give a chase to the US, although in the pecking order of countries, China till date is yielding first position to the US. Many theories are afloat about its transition. China has invested hugely in science and technology and now it has achieved a critical mass to dictate terms in its own way while continuing with its unblemished commitment to progress. Still, that process of consolidation is continuing in various forms and hues. That also happens at a time, the world is still back to the bipolar architecture wherein the US and China are pulling their powers in their own way, captivating as many countries on their own sides either by lure or fear or both. China’s preoccupations in Indochina, Africa, and some of the East European countries along with its now close ally-Russia-can be seen everywhere, as a testimony of a bipolar world.  

Is this the final order that is unveiled to us? I do not think so. I feel a multipolar world is in the making. Who will be the major players in that emerging architecture?  I have a few predictions. Foremost, the current seemingly bipolar dispensation is a transitionary stage. A tripolar world, where three countries would emerge leaders. Which will be the third country to join with the US and China? Had it been several years ago, I would have bet on Japan, despite its small size and several other disadvantages. But Japan is not in the race because the country had slipped into a morass for several years. My choice is between Germany and Russia. Germany because of its leadership in technology and less based on its propaganda and assertions. Several people believe that propaganda machinery both in the US and China are very powerful though their approaches may be different. The US has subtle platforms to promote its technology and other leadership tractions, whereas China uses a strategy wherein the negative news vibes fail to go beyond the four walls through an archaic method of censorship. That is also a sort of manipulation of the media.  

Will the world be a different place to live in the tri-polar architecture? There may be changes in equations, how countries relate to each other, how they trade with each other, how investments are channelized, and a lot more on the economic and commercial fronts. What will be the relationship among the superpowers in the event of a tripolar world?  They will compete for supremacy in every aspect of life. I feel the greatest development and challenges are going to be in the sphere of science and technology. Many new things would come into operation, which will have dual use -for good and bad. For instance, there will be aircraft and aerospace vehicles, which can travel much faster than speed so that the time taken for traveling between distant continents is drastically reduced. Can we think of traveling between Beijing and Washington in 30 minutes or so? Both Tesla and Richard Bronson are experimenting with such technologies. From launching stations, the spaceship first enters outer space and then propels towards the destination in a rarified and frictionless space to reach the destination and then descends into the Earth’s orbit for landing. One can also extrapolate developments in healthcare and education to visualize hospitals and universities that can serve globally. I feel that very soon the jobs are going to be of a different nature and selection process also will undergo a drastic change. As more and more companies having trans-world operations coming up, there will be a severe crunch in manpower in developed countries. Unlike what is happening now, people will be reluctant to relocate to other countries because of better standard of living and better living conditions in home countries. Countries, which will have low fertility and birth rate will induce people to relocate by offering handsome packages. Free movement of people across the countries will receive high decibel encouragement.    

The challenge may come from the very development process itself. Artificial Intelligence, IoTs, etc. will make life easier but will lead to complications. The foremost challenge is the rule of machines over man. It may be presently a utopian concept, but not too distant time, this may become a reality.  Next in importance is the dumping of electronic equipment, which can be a problem, because of its adverse impact on environmental degradation. I foresee massive programs being funded by rich countries to counter climate change, which will emerge as the villain in the coming decades.  Already, a good number of technocrats are demanding a sort of moratorium on further research into artificial intelligence on the plea that it will have a major impact on humanity. It is not the old reasoning of the replacement of human hands by computers, that is cited; but the emotional discord AI can create in society. There is a growing number of opinions that further breakthroughs in AI may be put on hold at least for some time till an expert group clears the ethical side of such discoveries.  

This development is also temporary.    Eventually, I visualize a multipolar world, where at least half a dozen countries will emerge as superpowers, who would rule the roost. What will be the criterion for being added to the League of Superpowers? Foremost is the supremacy in technology and its applications. This will be measured in terms of their innovations, discoveries, and disruptions. The second criterion will be inclusivity. Countries should have to ensure a higher standard of living to their people. Thirdly, they should have good support from   countries that are not in the league. Fourthly, the countries in the league should be able to exert pressure in changing global narratives, be it trade, investments, technology, and doling out humanitarian aid. Defense preparedness will be another criterion that can push the countries up the ladder.  

I venture to add three more countries to the group so to take the total number of superpowers to six. Who are they? They will be either Russia or Germany, who will be left out of the tripolar race. The fifth in number, most probably from Africa. One can speculate on South Africa or Nigeria or even Ethiopia. Finally in the Group of Six, I foresee will be India, if she is progressing well in the next twenty-five years.  That I believe, is the rationale of Amrit Kal we are visualizing. Let that be the vision of over 1,7 billion people of India, who will be residing in India by that time.