Should we Deploy AI For Conflict Management?

These days I get imbued to strange thoughts and new- fangled ideas.  I never banish them knowingly and allow that to run its full course uninterrupted. 

Also, such sporadic thoughts may help in gaining rare insights. Now you may wonder what is that great thought? 

I was debating what is the greatest enemy of the mankind, what  block its progress and throw innumerable challenges. First thing that cames to me is about natural disasters which steal several precious lives, make millions homeless and displaced. Though we blame such happenings to senseless exploitation of mother earth, and the consequent climate change, we adduce those things to Act of God, probably because none of us are directly responsible for such sinister happenings or such things happen because of preponderance and cumulative indifference mankind over a long stretch of time.

The other thought that occurred to me if catastrophes or climate changes are not the direct factors working against mankind, what else then. War, civil disturbances or things of that ilk? What are the basic reasons for a war, or civil disturbances and things of that nature.  

There are various studies in the public domain about the loss due to conflicts. I was wondering if Russia-Ukraine war would have been avoided, how much loss we could have prevented, how many precious lives we could have saved, how many brutalities that we could have avoided. If anyone can quantify such things, it will be mind-boggling. The assets global community has created over the years had come to a naught with such conflicts. The two world wars caused us dearly and the damage that can cause another global war can be anybody’s guess. 

For a while, let me reflect over the cause of conflict. It can be numerous. It can be due to economic exploitation, racial discrimination, regional imbalances, violation of human rights, persecution and the list is endless. How such things are happening? Ego can be one reason, the other can be putting self before everything and there are umpteen possibilities and permutation combinations for eruption of conflict. Yet, I will qualify them as man-made unlike that are caused by natural calamities like an earthquake or similar natural disasters. 

One study pointed out that in Africa, which has 55 countries of various economic levels and over 1.3 billion people, are losing close to 30% of GDP due to conflicts. I feel that it is a very conservative estimate. It may not have taken into account the precious lives lost in conflicts which cannot be quantified. It cannot estimate precisely the clogged infrastructure, disruption of ordinary life and a lot more variables. If you add up all these factors, it will work out quite a tidy sum. 

Why people are not coming around the table and discuss the matter threadbare. There is a general belief among the victim of a conflict or oppressed that he or she will not get justice. They also feel that a lot of subjectivity will come into play while thrashing out a settlement. 

Let me take another example, Judiciary. I am talking in a global sense and not confined to any country or region. There is a feeling that justice delayed is justice denied. That way even if the justice is carried out, if there is delay in getting that, it might be a denial of justice. The same analogy we can extrapolate to other situations also. Conflicts in some African countries is mostly due to tribal loyalties, particularly in the least developed countries. 

What is justice and denial of that is not known to parties involved in the conflict. They will continue to harp on the same issues. It may be due to lack of their knowledge or poorer economic and educational background. But that is a fact of life. 

What is the way out? I am a votary of applying Artificial Intelligence for conflict resolution. Facts, history, ramifications, etc. of every conflict is known and well recognized. Can the arbitrators feed such information in a computer intelligible format. Using AI and data mining, a feasible resolution can come based on facts and figures. 

I am not overlooking the fault lines of such analysis. Conflict resolution is more like a conciliation and arbitration and based on give and take. In the mediation process, no one can be an absolute winner. Parties will have to give up something to gain something. AI generated decision will be one sided and nothing in between. Yet, I feel there is scope for trying these models in a good number of cases. But if mediations need sensitive approach, I am sure it can be programmed into the inputs that are fed for data mining.  

There is a raging debate that is taking place regarding application of AI in judiciary to cut down the pendency. There is a stiff resistance to it. One reason adduced is that it might make the existing infrastructure redundant. There are also, apprehensions expressed from some quarters, it may have a backlash on lawyering and related professions. But that is quite natural with any type of reforms. For instance, Banks have shed many people due to automation. 

Companies across the world are becoming lean and mean by rationalizing workforce. 

That can happen in judiciary also. The other point is with AI-induction, the judiciary is not doing away with hierarchy of courts and appellate jurisdiction. 

In the same manner, for conflict management also there can be layers of conflict management mechanism with appellate jurisdictions. The bottom line is humanity should be freed from the pangs of conflict. Whether it is a utopian idea or a practical one; I do not know.