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Server-driven memory demand pushes prices higher across the board in 1Q26, says TrendForce

TrendForce latest investigation indicate that conventional DRAM contract prices will rise 55–60% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in 1Q26, while NAND Flash prices are expected to increase 33–38% QoQ. DRAM suppliers are reallocating advanced nodes and new capacity toward server and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) products to meet rising AI infrastructure demand. This shift is limiting availability for PCs and consumer devices, forcing buyers to pay higher prices.

Server DRAM, in particular, is expected to see the steepest increase, with prices projected to climb over 60% QoQ. U.S.-based cloud service providers (CSPs) have been placing large orders since late 2025, securing a significant portion of available supply and leaving other buyers to contend with tight inventories. Even mobile DRAM for smartphones is likely to remain undersupplied, supporting continued price rises for LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X modules.

NAND Flash Prices Climb as Enterprise SSDs Lead Growth

TrendForce notes that NAND Flash demand is increasingly polarized between consumer and AI applications. Enterprise SSDs are set to become the largest segment in 2026 as North American CSPs accelerate AI infrastructure investments. Client SSD demand, meanwhile, is declining due to weaker notebook shipments and cost-reduction measures in entry- and mid-range devices. High-capacity QLC SSDs remain limited, driving contract prices for client SSDs up by over 40% QoQ.

Smartphone eMMC and UFS memory demand is also slowing after heavy consumption in 2025, pushing the market into an inventory adjustment phase. Chromebook shipments may see modest gains due to government programs, but overall consumer demand remains weak. NAND Flash wafer supply is constrained as manufacturers prioritize high-margin products, sustaining price pressure across the market.

Overall, TrendForce highlights that cautious capacity growth, tight inventory levels, and shifting supplier priorities will keep memory supply below demand throughout 1Q26. This dynamic is expected to sustain sharp price increases for DRAM and NAND Flash, particularly in server and enterprise applications.